Out of Pakistan

My colleagues here in Kabul (yes, I'm back in Afghanistan) claim that Pakistan is more dangerous than here. I disagree, but the more time I spend reading the papers in Pakistan, the more concerned I become about the country's inherent instability.

Here's the sitch:

There are big chunks of Pakistan territory lying along the Afghan border which the federal government has no control over. This has even been codified -- Pakistani federal law only applies within 10 feet in each direction of the highways in these regions.

The optimistic view of this situation compares it to that of the US many years ago, when the states had more juridical independence from the feds, and criminals could commit a crime in one state and run to another to escape prosecution.

A darker view would compare it to the US pre-Civil War, however, instead of cotton-growing slave owners, Islamic militants are running things. These militants are accused of having created a haven for terrorists, sending everything from rockets to suicide bombers across the border (the regions are also a weapons free-for-all; you can get anything there, for a price).

Pakistan's president, Musharraf, does not seem to have the political or military capacity to get control of these regions, and some of his generals, who he relies upon to stay in power, are in sympathy with the fundamentalists. So what happens if the US decides, "enough is enough" and starts bombing the border areas?

Last month we did just that, taking out a few Pakistani hoouseholds that were holding a dinner party for Al Qaeda terrorists. The general public was infuriated at this infringement of their soverignty, and I suspect that this has fed the latest cartoon riots, which have morphed into anti-government demonstrations, linking Musharaff's government to the corrupt and decadent west.

I don't see a lot of happy endings to this.